It was eight weeks ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When the England international swept in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six games, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their star man to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus the Red Devils.
His opener originated from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
